Any type of assessment must be done in light of the expectations that the subject of the assessment needs to achieve. In the case of a target community, expectations deriving from the "Comprehensive Plan for New Church Development" or other objectives from those doing congregational development will provide a framework. Presumably, the target area has become a target area because it has displayed characteristics in line with expectations. An area does not become a target area by chance.

For example, if the goal is to plant a new church in an area of rapid population growth due to urban sprawl, then an area displaying that characteristic would be a candidate for a target area. Similarly, if developing a new African American congregation is the goal, then finding areas with underserved populations — or anticipated populations — of African Americans would be desired.

Sometimes the process may be reactive rather than proactive. Typically, in such cases, someone realizes that a demographic change has taken place and that no church is in a position to care for that change. For example, several large housing developments may have sprung up without advance knowledge by church officials; hence, there is no church presence in that community. Church officials then react and say that a new church needs to be developed to serve that community. The problem with this kind of reactive planning is that it is much more difficult to acquire land and to reach the people who may have already made other church decisions.

It is difficult to sort out the assessment/determination of an area from the circumstances that have led to the decision to start a new church. A key principle is identifying people groups who need the church but are not being served by any church. Anticipating the emergence of such people groups by paying attention to demographic change is important. The most obvious situation is where the population is growing rapidly. Another is where the population of an existing area is not growing but changing in its composition. The most common change is the racial/ethnic distribution in a community. Other demographic changes include generational or psychographic change.

Another factor in determining the need for a new church is the ability of the current church or churches to serve the people groups in an area. For example, as population becomes more dense around the fringes of a metropolitan area, existing country churches become surrounded by people. Since these churches are already in place, one might expect that they could serve the new people. They seldom do, however, due to lack of vision and mission to do so, a lack of leadership (pastoral and/or lay), an unwillingness to change from being a small country chapel, land limitations, ineffective existing ministry, unappealing facilities, and so on. If the existing churches cannot change to meet the needs of the new people groups, then a new church start may be warranted.

A related factor in making the decision to start a new church is the presence of non-United Methodist churches in the area. The Baptists or Presbyterians may get there first with the same missional purpose in mind. Not all churches are alike in doctrine, style, outreach, and overall ministry. Hence, the presence of other churches does not mean there is not a place for a United Methodist Church. Nevertheless, the "competition" should be assessed.

A valuable tool in identifying target areas is the thematic map — a shaded map with a particular demographic variable emphasized in the color scheme. These maps can be made for a district or even a conference. For example, a thematic map representing population growth may use bright red to indicate the areas with the greatest anticipated growth and blue to indicate areas with the least growth/greatest decline. Several shades of graduated color in between would complete the picture. One could see at a glance where the "hot" areas are. The map could be further enhanced by placing existing churches on it to determine if the "hot" areas have any churches present. On the other end of the spectrum, one could see if the declining areas had too many churches present.

One complication of the thematic map representing growth is that it is based on census geography units, commonly the block group. These are not uniform in size, so they can be misleading. It makes a big difference whether the population is increasing by 500 people in a 20-acre area or by 500 people in a five-square-mile area. Thematic maps can also give anticipated population density growth, which alleviates this concern. Population density is population per unit area, usually square mile.

Another type of thematic map can show the concentration of ethnic or racial populations. Others can illumine median household income, youth populations, turnover levels (how transient people are), and just about any other demographic variable.

Demographic data can come in tabular form too. For instance, all the zip codes of the conference can be listed with corresponding demographic variables of interest. These can easily be ranked to spot areas where particular demographics are most accentuated.

While some demographic data may be ordered from providers such as the Research Office of the General Board of Global Ministries or from Percept, other forms of data can be obtained from local and regional government and private sources. Planning boards, realtors, school districts, and local chambers of commerce are all sources of information about what changes may be taking place in the region as well as what needs may be present.

Don't forget to spend time on the ground as well. Driving around can often provide insights. Whenever driving for other purposes, keep your eyes open to anything that smacks of a ministry opportunity. Talk to pastors when the opportunity arises and ask them what is happening in their communities. If possible, fly around in a small plane. It is amazing how clearly growth can be spotted from the air!

Pay attention to infrastructure issues, such as highways, sewer, and water. Freeways can make or break an area by either providing better access or by isolating the area. If a community seems to be a good prospect, look at the availability of land and/or meeting facilities. How expensive is real estate? Do the schools allow rental of space for worship? How expensive is office space?

In growth areas, awareness of the source of the growth is very useful. For example, if growth is due to a major employer opening a new facility in the area, the stability of that employer is vital. Some communities are in major decline due to the closing of a major industry. A general sense of the direction of the economy may influence congregational development decisions in general.

While gathering all the relevant data is usually advisable, do not forget to use the most relevant source. Hard data should certainly be employed, but let's not forget to keep the ultimate source of all truth in the formula as well. All decisions and analysis should be done prayerfully, seeking God's direction in all matters.

John H. Southwick is the (Acting) Director of Research, General Board of Global Ministries, New York, New York. For more information go to http://research.gbgm-umc.org or e-mail John at jsouthw@gbgm-umc.org.