Central cities and the suburbs that surround them have long maintained clear
dissimilarities. These are changing as suburbs are taking on many of the
traditional characteristics of cities, and cities themselves are evolving.
Cities are showing signs of reversing decades of perceived and real decline,
while suburbs are increasingly playing roles historically associated with,
and looking more like, central cities. The recently released book,
Redefining Urban and Suburban America edited by Bruce Katz and Robert E.
Lang (Brookings), does a marvelous job of articulating these changes. This
work is heavily dependent on the most recent Census data and contains a
wealth of demographic data, as well as lucid analysis.
Approximately 9,300 of the nearly 36,000 United Methodist churches are in
metropolitan areas. These account for about 3.6 million of the 8.3 million
US members. In 2000, more than eight of every ten persons lived in metropolitan
areas, and nearly one-third lived in metro areas of 5 million persons or more.
Since United Methodist Church location and even membership distribution is
more skewed to "town and country" areas than cities and suburbs, the gospel imperative of going where the people are points toward the need for
increasing focus on metropolitan areas. Understanding the changes in these
areas can lead to more effective ministry. Toward this end, the remainder of
this newsletter will summarize key findings from the aforementioned book.
Cities are making turnarounds with population trends. Whereas most cities
have had long periods of decline, many are now growing significantly, others
more modestly, and others, while still declining, are doing so much more
slowly. Not surprisingly, these changes vary by region of the country with
the Northeast and Midwest cities showing the least vitality. It seems as
though people like warm, dry places over cold, wet places. Additionally, the
greatest growth is in metropolitan areas with more of an emphasis on service
industries than heavy manufacturing. For United Methodist churches in the
many cities which have shown decline, the overall turnaround is encouraging
news. The catch, however, is that the people moving in most likely do not
resemble those who have left, something that congregations do not always
adjust to.
Raw population numbers do not describe the demographics of the people
represented by those numbers. For example, some city population increases
are taking place in revitalized downtowns. These folks are likely to be
either young, mostly single professionals, who want to be near their work
locations, culture, and nightlife, or older couples wanting to unload their
big suburban homes for condos and culture. In other words, households are
increasing faster than population because the household size is smaller than
the average.
Cities are obviously composed of many neighborhoods besides downtown. Some
are still declining while others are growing, with the overall effect having
been noted earlier, as generally more positive. Many of these growing
neighborhoods are doing so largely due to the influx of non-white and
Hispanic people. In some cities, such as New York, the immigrant growth is
the only thing that saved the cities from showing severe decline in the 1990's. Another dimension of this trend is that in many central cities the majority has become the sum of the minorities; that is, whites are now less than half the population.
The most notable people group effecting these population changes is
Hispanics. In the decade of the 90's Hispanics increased from 22.4 million
to 35.3 million, with most of these settling in metropolitan areas. So
dramatic is this influx that a full one-fifth of the 100 largest cities
would have shown population declines were it not for growth in Latino
populations. The four great Latino gateway cities of New York, Miami, Los
Angeles, and Chicago continued to show massive immigration, but at a lesser
rate than in the past. Hispanic growth is showing much greater dispersal
than previously, including all types of communities.
While cities are undergoing major changes, suburbs are likewise altering,
including taking on characteristics usually associated with the central
cities. Suburbs are increasingly becoming employment centers, with other
city features such as retailing, entertainment, and offices. There is an
increasing phenomenon, sometimes called the "boomburb," where a suburb has grown explosively and now has more than 100,000 residents. Most of "boomburbs" are found in the Southwest, but they are not limited to there. Their raw size makes them more like central cities, as well as their increased role and impact in regional planning.
Suburbs other than boomburbs also grew at a much faster pace overall than
central cities, but not all have grown. Most of those that experienced
decline were, again, in the Northeast and Midwest, with Pittsburgh having
the largest number of them. Not surprisingly, the suburbs most susceptible
to population decreases were the ring suburbs closest to the central cities.
Suburbs are also coming to resemble the cities they surround as their
populations are becoming more diverse. Suburbs are no longer stereotypically
white. Overall, the share of racial and ethnic minorities living in the
suburbs increased substantially in the 1990's, moving from less than
one-fifth to more than one-quarter of all suburbanites. This trend is most
evident in metro areas that already had a strong immigrant base. Again,
Hispanics have been leading this change. In 1990 the Latino population was
about evenly split between suburbs (8.7 million) and central cities (8.6
million) in the top 100 metro areas. By 2000 the number in the suburbs
increased by 71 percent, compared to 47 percent in the central cities.
The editors conclude: "The findings are unequivocal. Cities and suburbs are
undergoing a dynamic metamorphosis. Government, business, and nonprofit
leaders must know the demographic context of the communities in which they
work. These demographic shifts are signaling changes in demand for housing
and services such as schools, healthcare, and eldercare, as well as changing
consumer preferences for private sector goods. They also signal the shifting
nature of politics in our cities and suburbs, redefining the coalitions for
change." Methodists take note.
Click here to download this article in pdf format.
From the Background Data for Mission Newsletter (July 2003 Volume 15, No.7). John H. Southwick, Editor. Copyright © 2003 by the Office of Research of the General Board of Global
Ministries, 475 Riverside Drive, Room 300, New York, NY 10115.
Telephone: 212-870-3840; Fax: 212-870-3876; E-Mail: research@gbgm-umc.org;
Website: http://research.gbgm-umc.org. Subscriptions to Background Data for Mission Newsletter are FREE via E-Mail or $12.00 Yearly via US Mail.
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